The German Economic Institute (IW) warned on Thursday (March 5, 2026) that the US-Israeli war against Iran could severely impact Germany’s economy.

• If Brent crude rises to $100 per barrel, Germany could lose about 0.3% of GDP in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, totaling around €40 billion ($46.4 billion) over two years.

• At $150 per barrel, GDP could drop 0.5% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, with losses exceeding €80 billion.

• Although direct trade with Iran has declined in recent years, Germany remains highly vulnerable to rising energy prices and import costs.

• The institute described the Middle East conflict as posing “serious consequences” for economic growth and future development.

Sources – Agencies